Oil droplet fouling on lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) eggshells does not enhance the crude oil induced developmental toxicity.

The oil industry's expansion and increased operational activity at older installations, along with their demolition, contribute to rising cumulative pollution and a heightened risk of accidental oil spills. The lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) is a keystone prey species in the North Sea and coastal systems. Their eggs adhere to the seabed substrate making them particularly vulnerable to oil exposure during embryonic development. We evaluated the sensitivity of sandeel embryos to crude oil in a laboratory by exposing them to dispersed oil at concentrations of 0, 15, 50, and 150 µg/L oil between 2 and 16 days post-fertilization. We assessed water and tissue concentrations of THC and tPAH, cyp1a expression, lipid distribution in the eyes, head and trunk, and morphological and functional deformities. Oil droplets accumulated on the eggshell in all oil treatment groups, to which the embryo responded by a dose-dependent rise in cyp1a expression. The oil exposure led to only minor sublethal deformities in the upper jaw and otic vesicle. The findings suggest that lesser sandeel embryos are resilient to crude oil exposure. The lowest observed effect level documented in this study was 36 µg THC/L and 3 µg tPAH/L. The inclusion of these species-specific data in risk assessment models will enhance the precision of risk evaluations for the North Atlantic ecosystems.

Mind the gap - Relevant design for laboratory oil exposure of fish as informed by a numerical impact assessment model.

Laboratory experiments provide knowledge of species-specific effects thresholds that are used to parameterize impact assessment models of oil contamination on marine ecosystems. Such experiments typically place individuals of species and life stages in tanks with different contaminant concentrations. Exposure concentrations are usually fixed, and the individuals experience a shock treatment being moved from clean water directly into contaminated water and then back to clean water. In this study, we use a coupled numerical model that simulates ocean currents and state, oil dispersal and fate, and early life stages of fish to quantify oil exposure histories, specifically addressing oil spill scenarios of high rates and long durations. By including uptake modelling we also investigate the potential of buffering transient high peaks in exposure. Our simulation results are the basis for a recommendation on the design of laboratory experiments to improve impact assessment model development and parameterization. We recommend an exposure profile with three main phases: i) a gradual increase in concentration, ii) a transient peak that is well above the subsequent level, and iii) a plateau of fixed concentration lasting ∼3 days. In addition, a fourth phase with a slow decrease may be added.

Crude oil exposure of early life stages of Atlantic haddock suggests threshold levels for developmental toxicity as low as 0.1 µg total polyaromatic hydrocarbon (TPAH)/L.

Atlantic haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) embryos bind dispersed crude oil droplets to the eggshell and are consequently highly susceptible to toxicity from spilled oil. We established thresholds for developmental toxicity and identified any potential long-term or latent adverse effects that could impair the growth and survival of individuals. Embryos were exposed to oil for eight days (10, 80 and 300 µg oil/L, equivalent to 0.1, 0.8 and 3.0 µg TPAH/L). Acute and delayed mortality were observed at embryonic, larval, and juvenile stages with IC50 = 2.2, 0.39, and 0.27 µg TPAH/L, respectively. Exposure to 0.1 µg TPAH/L had no negative effect on growth or survival. However, yolk sac larvae showed significant reduction in the outgrowth (ballooning) of the cardiac ventricle in the absence of other extracardiac morphological defects. Due to this propensity for latent sublethal developmental toxicity, we recommend an effect threshold of 0.1 µg TPAH/L for risk assessment models.

An annual profile of the impacts of simulated oil spills on the Northeast Arctic cod and haddock fisheries.

We simulate the combined natural and pollutant-induced survival of early life stages of NEA cod and haddock, and the impact on the adult populations in response to the time of a major oil spill in a single year. Our simulations reveal how dynamic ocean processes, controlling both oil transport and fate and the frequency of interactions of oil with drifting fish eggs and larvae, mediate the magnitude of population losses due to an oil spill. The largest impacts on fish early life stages occurred for spills initiated in Feb-Mar, concomitant with the initial rise in marine productivity and the earliest phase of the spawning season. The reproductive health of the adult fish populations was maintained in all scenarios. The study demonstrates the application of a simulation system that provides managers with information for the planning of development activities and for the protection of fisheries resources from potential impacts.

Quantitative molecular detection of larval Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in stomach contents of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) marks regions of predation pressure.

Mortality rates in the early life-history stages of fishes are generally high yet identifying the causes remain unclear. Faltering recruitment rates of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in the Norwegian Sea indicate a need to identify which mortality factors influence larval herring survival. Previous research suggests that increased predation pressure by Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) may contribute to the disconnect between spawning stock biomass and recruitment. To quantify the contribution of predation pressure by Atlantic mackerel to herring larval mortality, two research cruises were conducted within a probable "hot spot" (67-72° N) for intensified mackerel predation based on particle drift simulations. Mackerel stomach contents were analysed for herring larvae content using droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) with a quantitative molecular detection assay specific for herring. The ddPCR results demonstrate clear predation by mackerel on herring larvae and also suggest that the alternative use of visual examination may give misleading results. Our results show that mackerel should be considered a potentially important predator on herring larvae. The quantitative molecular assay presented here shows great promise as an efficient and specific tool to correctly identify and quantify predation pressure on early life-history stages of fishes.

Effects of Exposure to Low Concentrations of Oil on the Expression of Cytochrome P4501a and Routine Swimming Speed of Atlantic Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) Larvae In Situ.

Exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of oil could impact survival of fish larvae in situ through subtle effects on larval behavior. During the larval period, Atlantic haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) are transported toward nursery grounds by ocean currents and active swimming, which can modify their drift route. Haddock larvae are sensitive to dispersed oil; however, whether exposure to oil during development impacts the ability of haddock larvae to swim in situ is unknown. Here, we exposed Atlantic haddock embryos to 10 and 80 µg oil/L (0.1 and 0.8 µg ∑PAH/L) of crude oil for 8 days and used a novel approach to measure its effect on the larval swimming behavior in situ. We assessed the swimming behavior of 138 haddock larvae in situ, in the North Sea, using a transparent drifting chamber. Expression of cytochrome P4501a (cyp1a) was also measured. Exposure to 10 and 80 µg oil/L significantly reduced the average in situ routine swimming speed by 30-40% compared to the controls. Expression of cyp1a was significantly higher in both exposed groups. This study reports key information for improving oil spill risk assessment models and presents a novel approach to study sublethal effects of pollutants on fish larvae in situ.

Polar cod in jeopardy under the retreating Arctic sea ice.

The Arctic amplification of global warming is causing the Arctic-Atlantic ice edge to retreat at unprecedented rates. Here we show how variability and change in sea ice cover in the Barents Sea, the largest shelf sea of the Arctic, affect the population dynamics of a keystone species of the ice-associated food web, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). The data-driven biophysical model of polar cod early life stages assembled here predicts a strong mechanistic link between survival and variation in ice cover and temperature, suggesting imminent recruitment collapse should the observed ice-reduction and heating continue. Backtracking of drifting eggs and larvae from observations also demonstrates a northward retreat of one of two clearly defined spawning assemblages, possibly in response to warming. With annual to decadal ice-predictions under development the mechanistic physical-biological links presented here represent a powerful tool for making long-term predictions for the propagation of polar cod stocks.

Atlantic Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) Larvae Have a Magnetic Compass that Guides Their Orientation.

Atlantic haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) is a commercially important species of gadoid fish. In the North Sea, their main spawning areas are located close to the northern continental slope. Eggs and larvae drift with the current across the North Sea. However, fish larvae of many taxa can orient at sea using multiple external cues, including the Earth's magnetic field. In this work, we investigated whether haddock larvae passively drift or orient using the Earth's magnetic field. We observed the behavior of 59 and 102 haddock larvae swimming in a behavioral chamber deployed in the Norwegian North Sea and in a magnetic laboratory, respectively. In both in situ and laboratory settings, where the magnetic field direction was modified, haddock larvae significantly oriented toward the northwest. We conclude that haddock larvae orientation at sea is guided by a magnetic compass mechanism. These results have implications for retention and dispersal of pelagic haddock larvae.

Combined effects of fishing and oil spills on marine fish: Role of stock demographic structure for offspring overlap with oil.

It has been proposed that the multiple pressures of fishing and petroleum activities impact fish stocks in synergy, as fishing-induced demographic changes in a stock may lead to increased sensitivity to detrimental effects of acute oil spills. High fishing pressure may erode the demographic structure of fish stocks, lead to less diverse spawning strategies, and more concentrated distributions of offspring in space and time. Hence an oil spill may potentially hit a larger fraction of a year-class of offspring. Such a link between demographic structure and egg distribution was recently demonstrated for the Northeast Arctic stock of Atlantic cod for years 1959-1993. We here estimate that this variation translates into a two-fold variation in the maximal proportion of cod eggs potentially exposed to a large oil spill. With this information it is possible to quantitatively account for demographic structure in prospective studies of population effects of possible oil spills.

Assessing impacts of simulated oil spills on the Northeast Arctic cod fishery.

We simulate oil spills of 1500 and 4500m3/day lasting 14, 45, and 90days in the spawning grounds of the commercial fish species, Northeast Arctic cod. Modeling the life history of individual fish eggs and larvae, we predict deviations from the historical pattern of recruitment to the adult population due to toxic oil exposures. Reductions in survival for pelagic stages of cod were 0-10%, up to a maximum of 43%. These reductions resulted in a decrease in adult cod biomass of <3% for most scenarios, up to a maximum of 12%. In all simulations, the adult population remained at full reproductive potential with a sufficient number of juveniles surviving to replenish the population. The diverse age distribution helps protect the adult cod population from reductions in a single year's recruitment after a major oil spill. These results provide insights to assist in managing oil spill impacts on fisheries.

Modelled drift patterns of fish larvae link coastal morphology to seabird colony distribution.

Colonial breeding is an evolutionary puzzle, as the benefits of breeding in high densities are still not fully explained. Although the dynamics of existing colonies are increasingly understood, few studies have addressed the initial formation of colonies, and empirical tests are rare. Using a high-resolution larval drift model, we here document that the distribution of seabird colonies along the Norwegian coast can be explained by variations in the availability and predictability of fish larvae. The modelled variability in concentration of fish larvae is, in turn, predicted by the topography of the continental shelf and coastline. The advection of fish larvae along the coast translates small-scale topographic characteristics into a macroecological pattern, viz. the spatial distribution of top-predator breeding sites. Our findings provide empirical corroboration of the hypothesis that seabird colonies are founded in locations that minimize travel distances between breeding and foraging locations, thereby enabling optimal foraging by central-place foragers.

Dispersants have limited effects on exposure rates of oil spills on fish eggs and larvae in shelf seas.

Early life stages of fish are particularly vulnerable to oil spills. Simulations of overlap of fish eggs and larvae with oil from different oil-spill scenarios, both without and with the dispersant Corexit 9500, enable quantitative comparisons of dispersants as a mitigation alternative. We have used model simulations of a blow out of 4500 m(3) of crude oil per day (Statfjord light crude) for 30 days at three locations along the Norwegian coast. Eggs were released from nine different known spawning grounds, in the period from March 1st until the end of April, and all spawning products were followed for 90 days from the spill start at April first independent of time for spawning. We have modeled overlap between spawning products and oil concentrations giving a total polycyclic hydrocarbon (TPAH) concentration of more than 1.0 or 0.1 ppb (µg/l). At these orders of magnitude, we expect acute mortality or sublethal effects, respectively. In general, adding dispersants results in higher concentrations of TPAHs in a reduced volume of water compared to not adding dispersants. Also, the TPAHs are displaced deeper in the water column. Model simulations of the spill scenarios showed that addition of chemical dispersant in general moderately decreased the fraction of eggs and larvae that were exposed above the selected threshold values.

The stress hormone corticosterone in a marine top predator reflects short-term changes in food availability.

In many seabird studies, single annual proxies of prey abundance have been used to explain variability in breeding performance, but much more important is probably the timing of prey availability relative to the breeding season when energy demand is at a maximum. Until now, intraseasonal variation in prey availability has been difficult to quantify in seabirds. Using a state-of-the-art ocean drift model of larval cod Gadus morhua, an important constituent of the diet of common guillemots Uria aalge in the southwestern Barents Sea, we were able to show clear, short-term correlations between food availability and measurements of the stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in parental guillemots over a 3-year period (2009-2011). The model allowed the extraction of abundance and size of cod larvae with very high spatial (4 km) and temporal resolutions (1 day) and showed that cod larvae from adjacent northern spawning grounds in Norway were always available near the guillemot breeding colony while those from more distant southerly spawning grounds were less frequent, but larger. The latter arrived in waves whose magnitude and timing, and thus overlap with the guillemot breeding season, varied between years. CORT levels in adult guillemots were lower in birds caught after a week with high frequencies of southern cod larvae. This pattern was restricted to the two years (2009 and 2010) in which southern larvae arrived before the end of the guillemot breeding season. Any such pattern was masked in 2011 by already exceptionally high numbers of cod larvae in the region throughout chick-rearing period. The findings suggest that CORT levels in breeding birds increase when the arrival of southern sizable larvae does not match the period of peak energy requirements during breeding.

Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

Dispersal of the radionuclide caesium-137 ((137)Cs) from point sources in the Barents and Norwegian Seas and its potential contamination of the Arctic marine food chain: coupling numerical ocean models with geographical fish distribution data.

Dispersal of (137)Cs from the nuclear submarine wrecks Komsomolets and K-159, which are resting on the seabed in the Norwegian and Barents Seas, respectively, is simulated using realistic rates and hypothetical scenarios. Furthermore, spatiotemporal (137)Cs concentrations in Northeast Arctic cod and capelin are estimated based on survey data. The results indicate that neither continuous leakages nor pulse discharges will cause concentrations of (137)Cs in cod muscle or whole body capelin exceeding the intervention level of 600 Bq/kg fw. Continuous leakages from Komsomolets and K-159 and pulse discharges from Komsomolets induced negligible activity concentrations in cod and capelin. A pulse discharge of 100% of the (137)Cs-inventory of K-159 will, however, result in concentrations in muscle of cod of above 100 times the present levels in the eastern Barents Sea. Within three years after the release, (137)Cs levels above 20 Bq/kg fw in cod are no longer occurring in the Barents Sea.

One mechanism contributing to co-variability of the Atlantic inflow branches to the Arctic.

The two-branched inflow of warm and saline Atlantic Water to the Arctic is the major contributor of oceanic heat to the Arctic climate system. However, while the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic through the Fram Strait retains a large part of its heat as it flows along the Arctic continental slope, the branch flowing through the shallow Barents Sea releases a substantial amount of heat to the atmosphere. Hence, the pathway of the Atlantic Water into the Arctic to a large degree determines the short term fate of its heat. Here we show events in which the relative strengths of the two branches are affected by wind-induced Ekman-transport off the northern Barents Sea shelf. The resulting decrease in sea surface height induces a cyclonic circulation anomaly along the slope encircling the northern Barents Sea shelf area, which enhances the flow through the Barents Sea while weakening the branch flowing along the Arctic continental slope.

Dispersal of the radionuclide caesium-137 (137Cs) from point sources in the Barents and Norwegian Seas and its potential contamination of the Arctic marine food chain: coupling numerical ocean models with geographical fish distribution data.

Dispersal of (137)Cs from Komsomolets and K-159 is simulated using realistic rates and hypothetical scenarios. Furthermore, spatiotemporal (137)Cs concentrations in Northeast Arctic cod and capelin are estimated based on survey data. The results indicate that only pulse discharges from K-159 will cause concentrations of (137)Cs in cod muscle exceeding the intervention level of 600 Bq/kg fresh weight. A discharge of ≥10% of the (137)Cs-inventory will result in concentrations in muscle of cod exceeding the intervention level for approximately two years. In fact, a discharge of 10% of the (137)Cs-inventory results in an overlap of 8-30% between the different size groups of cod and levels that exceed the intervention level during the first year after the discharge. For capelin, individuals less than one year old during the first year after a discharge are more likely to be severely affected by discharges comprising ≥50% of the inventory.

Real-time ichthyoplankton drift in Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian spring-spawning herring.

BACKGROUND: Individual-based biophysical larval models, initialized and parameterized by observations, enable numerical investigations of various factors regulating survival of young fish until they recruit into the adult population. Exponentially decreasing numbers in Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian Spring Spawning herring early changes emphasizes the importance of early life history, when ichthyoplankton exhibit pelagic free drift. However, while most studies are concerned with past recruitment variability it is also important to establish real-time predictions of ichthyoplankton distributions due to the increasing human activity in fish habitats and the need for distribution predictions that could potentially improve field coverage of ichthyoplankton. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A system has been developed for operational simulation of ichthyoplankton distributions. We have coupled a two-day ocean forecasts from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute with an individual-based ichthyoplankton model for Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian Spring Spawning herring producing daily updated maps of ichthyoplankton distributions. Recent years observed spawning distribution and intensity have been used as input to the model system. The system has been running in an operational mode since 2008. Surveys are expensive and distributions of early stages are therefore only covered once or twice a year. Comparison between model and observations are therefore limited in time. However, the observed and simulated distributions of juvenile fish tend to agree well during early fall. Area-overlap between modeled and observed juveniles September 1(st) range from 61 to 73%, and 61 to 71% when weighted by concentrations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model system may be used to evaluate the design of ongoing surveys, to quantify the overlap with harmful substances in the ocean after accidental spills, as well as management planning of particular risky operations at sea. The modeled distributions are already utilized during research surveys to estimate coverage success of sampled biota and immediately after spills from ships at sea.